Future in their hands

EXPLAINER

Bougainville may go from ‘treasure island’ to world’s newest nation, writes Patrick Elligett.

Decades of unrest, deadly conflict and peaceful campaigning for independence in a tiny group of Melanesian islands north-east of Australia could soon culminate in the world’s newest country.

Voting began last week in the Bougainville independence referendum, where Bougainvilleans will finally have a chance to provide a definitive answer to the question of whether they want to secede from Papua New Guinea.

The fates of Australia and the nation-in-waiting have been inextricably linked since the end of World War II.

Where is Bougainville?

Bougainville is a cluster of islands north of the Solomon Islands and east of the island of New Guinea. The main island is – you guessed it – Bougainville Island. To the north is the far smaller island of Buka. A number of smaller islands and atolls speckle the surrounding territory.

Although PNG retains dominion over the islands, they are closer to the Solomons, both geographically and culturally. As well as being the largest island of the Solomon Islands archipelago, Bougainville was sometimes referred to as North Solomons: the name given to the islands when separatists declared independence from PNG in the mid-1970s. The name comes from the French explorer Louis-Antoine de Bougainville, who visited in 1768.

Why isn’t it independent?

Right now, Bougainville is not quite a country but not quite independent. It has its own parliament, its own borders and its own laws allowed under its status as the Autonomous Region of Bougainville.

That special status was granted to the islands during negotiations that followed a bloody, decade-long civil war. That war saw the secessionist Bougainville Revolutionary Army fighting PNG forces and other pro-PNG forces from 1988 to 1998. Some 20,000 people died during the conflict, many from disease and lack of medicine due to a naval blockade, out of a population of about 250,000. After more than 20,000 years of occupation of the islands, the people of Bougainville have not had their own nation since Europeans arrived more than a century ago. From the mid-1890s it was controlled by the Germans, then the British.

During World War I, Australian troops occupied the island and, 1920, Australia was granted a mandate by the League of Nations to govern the former German territory of New Guinea on behalf of the British, in line with the agreements made in the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I. World War II saw Japan occupy the territory before US and Australian troops supplanted them – 516 Australian troops died there. It returned to Australian administration, under its stewardship of PNG, at the end of the war. In 1975, Australia granted independence to PNG and Bougainville remained part of that country, despite an immediate declaration of independence from secessionists within the country, which was largely rejected by the international community.

Since the end of the civil war the push for independence has been largely peaceful. In 2001 a formal peace agreement was reached and a government was set up and a constitution implemented.

Why is the Panguna mine key?

In the ’70s and ’80s, the open-cut Panguna copper mine in Bougainville accounted for more than half of PNG’s export earnings. Thousands of workers, not all of them from Bougainville, staffed the mine, which was operated by Rio Tinto subsidiary Bougainville Copper.

Bougainvilleans felt they saw little of the profits from the hugely successful mine, which fuelled discontent among local landowning groups. It was, ultimately, one of the major factors contributing to the outbreak of civil war in the late ’80s.

In May 1989, the guerilla forces of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army forced the closure of the mine. Attempts to revive it since the peace agreement of the early 2000s have been unsuccessful. But the economic success of the emerging nation – which otherwise relies on copra (a coconut product), cocoa and timber exports – could depend on resurrecting the huge facility once described as the ‘‘jewel in the crown’’ of Rio Tinto. The mine was recently valued at $84 billion.

How does the referendum work?

Polls opened on November 23 and will close on December 7. Results are expected before Christmas. More than 206,000 voters are registered with more than 800 polling centres, with 246 polling teams spread across the Bougainville islands, Australia, PNG and the Solomons.

Overseeing the vote is the chairman of the Bougainville Referendum Commission (BRC), former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern, who has said the referendum ‘‘should be celebrated’’.

There are two options, known as ‘‘box one’’ and ‘‘box two’’. Box one is a vote for greater autonomy within PNG. Box two is a vote for independence.

Most close watchers of the vote are predicting a strong proindependence result but it won’t be unanimous. Some Bougainvilleans have expressed concerns about the provision of basic services if the territory was to become a nation.

The result of the referendum is non-binding. Any lasting action to follow the vote will require consultation between the Autonomous Bougainville Government and PNG’s central government, followed by ratifications in PNG’s Parliament.

There is a possibility that the people of Bougainville could support independence then have it denied to them by the PNG government in Port Moresby; or it may be denied if a majority of 111 MPs in Parliament don’t ratify it.

In a statement issued in October, PNG’s new Prime Minister, James Marape, did not explicitly commit to backing independence.

He thanked the people of Bougainville for their pursuit of a peaceful solution to the conflict.

‘‘I reiterate that the outcome of the referendum shall be deliberated on by leaders on both sides to ensure the best possible way forward for the people of Bougainville and Papua New Guinea,’’ Marape said.

What is China’s role?

China has been aggressively seeking influence and economic power in the Pacific as part of its Belt and Road initiative.

Earlier this month, Ben Bohane, reporting for the Herald, wrote about revelations of a proposed Chinese master plan for Bougainville, unveiled by former Bougainville general Sam Kauona.

The offers included a highway, an airport, port, bridges and a luxury resort, among other developments. However, China plans to use Bougainville’s mineral wealth as collateral for the deal.

‘This is the first holistic offer, which has come from China,’’ Kauona said during the unveiling.

‘‘Where is Australia and the US and Japan? Earlier this year, I met with representatives from Fortescue mining but I have been waiting 10 months for them to make a commitment.’’

Australian iron ore magnate Andrew ‘‘Twiggy’’ Forrest’s mining company, Fortescue, has confirmed to the Herald its representatives have travelled to Bougainville to explore opportunities there.

Kauona described resource-rich Bougainville as a ‘‘treasure island’’ but said that partners were needed to help ‘‘build a nation, not just exploit our resources’’.